December 1st marks the beginning of the meteorological winter, while the official start to winter continues to be several weeks away. For meteorologists, that is the three months with all the cheapest average temperature in the Northern Hemisphere — January December and February
It means this is a great time to have a look at exactly what the long range climate models have in store for the coming season. And the consensus is not cool.
Environment Canada has just now released their three month prognosis for Canada, together with the entire tendency being warmer than normal for many of Canada and all of BC.
It says it’s more than 80 per cent assured that typical temperatures in another three months is going to be above seasonal for much of southwestern BC.. Assurance in this long range outlook, it says, is more than 70 per cent for the southern half of the state and more than 50 per cent for northern sections
Meanwhile the West Coast of the waters off the West Coast as well as Vancouver Island are practically guaranteed to be warmer than ordinary.
That is to not say the South Coast will not find any spells that are cold, like last week, but the temperature tendency this winter will be above seasonal for Vancouver
Why The High Trust?
The ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific warm up signifying an El Nino event — it adds the long range outlooks and more assurance. It’s this type of controlling power in the atmosphere because meteorologists understand what that means it adds plenty of weight to the long range prognoses.
The weather patterns are changed by an El Nino all around the world, and for Canada it’s a reputation for bringing milder winters, especially to the West Coast
Now we’re on record in the middle of one among the most powerful El Nino’s. The truth that this is this kind of uncommon El Nino — both in strength and place (this year’s warmest temperatures are somewhat to the west of the standard place in the Pacific) means there are several uncertainties in regards to forecasting precipitation
Snow Drought For YVR
There’s some sign this winter may be somewhat wetter than normal for the West Coast, but self-confidence because outlook is as low as it’s for temperature.
Finally, It all will come to the storm track. We’re able to wind up at, or preceding, seasonal rain even if only a couple of Pineapple Express scenarios strike the South Coast.
Calling the snow line is even tougher. November 29 marked one complete year since any gathering snow — the longest snow drought for YVR has been found by Vancouver Airport in about 25 years. With early thanks opening to early mountain snow, nevertheless, it’s been among the best beginnings to the ski seasons in four years.